On the face of things Android is killing it.
Two things will actually ‘kill’ it:
First the developer experience is awful. Technologically and ecosystem-wise it is a distant second to iOS. This has slowed development of quality apps for android, and injured the developers that have targeted the platform. Apple will continue to enjoy ever-increasing lock-in as people have a larger investment in apps that they want to bring forward onto new devices. You hear vehement arguments on both sides of whether or not Android suffers from fragmentation issues. From a dev standpoint, yes it does.
Second the platform itself will continue to fragment, and not just in different device form-factors. I think it is very likely when Amazon comes to the party they won’t even mention ‘Android’ anywhere. It’s just a color Kindle or whatever and that’s that. Want apps for it? Sure, we’ve got an app store, but it is going to be different enough from the get go and will start to drift rapidly from the Google version. Amazon is will see advantages in being their own beast, they don’t want or need compatible devices out there from other manufacturers. The original Kindle did just fine thank you and the next will do that much better thanks to expanded capabilities.
Chinese carriers are already making their own forks of Android as well. This will only accelerate. Carriers and manufacturers that are pursing the ‘old’ model of differentiation through small feature set differences between phones will continue to duke it out over ever small slices.
I hope I’m wrong. I hope Google figures out a way to herd the cats more efficiently, because Apple needs the competition, but I will happily predict that the tablet market is already lost to them. iOS owns it, and Microsoft will come in very strong with Win 8 devices that can play in their existing Office hegemony. Even Google knew to hedge their bets, Chrome OS laptops anyone?
Computer-in-your-pocket phones for the moment are iOS and everyone else. Microsoft is doing great work here but nobody knows it yet. RIM is RIP. Interesting times.
Would your Mom know if she had an Android? Would she care?