The PC as the primary computing device is dead. They won’t go away, but they won’t be the main way that the average person interacts with data any more. It has [...]]]> In 10 years when we look back at the shape of the computer industry, 2010 will mark the clear start of the post-PC era.

The PC as the primary computing device is dead. They won’t go away, but they won’t be the main way that the average person interacts with data any more. It has taken a surprisingly long time to get here.

Everyone who is remotely serious about computers knows the silly prognostications that have been knocked down thoroughly in the past. The president of IBM who is famously mis-quoted as saying that he thought there was a world market for maybe five computers. Or the other famous mis-quote from Bill Gates that 640k ought to be enough for anybody. Well here is another silly prognostication; in 10 years you will no longer care about RAM, storage capacity, CPU Speed or resolution.

The easiest way to predict the future is to look at current trends and extend them.  Cloud computing, new means of Human-Computer Interaction, the continuation of a “Moore’s Law” in everything hardware related.

People don’t want a computer. They want the ability to find, access, manipulate and share information. The means of doing so is completely secondary. The current way of looking at a computer, as a discrete device with applications and physical attributes that are important to the context of what it can do, is ending quickly.

The average person definitely doesn’t want to deal with upgrades and updates, synchronizing and backing up. They don’t want to manage files. They don’t want to manage multiple logins. And they really couldn’t care less what the operating system is.

This is where the Linux fanboys, Microsoft, HP and Lenovo have been getting it wrong, some slightly and some comically; the users don’t care about you or your feature list, your free-ness, your compatibility, it is all already a commodity.  What they care about is the experience, what it feels like when they use it and how frictionless it is. You need to work hard to get out of their way and make it just work dammit. The companies that get this right win.

Apple has opened a door but by no means do they have an insurmountable lead. There is a lot of room for improvement, and it looks like Apple will make classic entrenched competitor mistakes and fail to innovate in key areas because the changes threaten established cash cows. Compare your experience with an iPhone or iPad today to what it should be. You should pick one up off the store shelf, take it to a cafe and power it on.  Log in with your universal OAuth account and indicate which payment method you want to use for your wireless network access and application purchases. Your data is all there in the cloud the moment you identify yourself, your device is connected the moment you complete payment, and you’re done. No iTunes setup, no sync, no backups, no downloads for music and videos, no emailing around documents.

We’ll be there very soon, and it may not be Apple who gets us there.

For the same reason many serious gear-heads have tired of tinkering with their Linux boxes and bought a Mac, though not me, most people will start to switch away from laptops and desktop machines. It won’t happen overnight, there is still too much you must have a ‘larger’ device for. But quickly, in only the next few years, as existing gear needs replacing the go-to device will be something ‘simple’ that lets them get at their data in the cloud. It is as inevitable as gravity.

Facebook is still lacking in one major area, and until this is fixed I and a lot of other people will remain uncomfortable. We need to [...]]]> A lot of ink and pixels are being spilled this week about announcements made at the Facebook conference this week.  Many of the new things announced are already live.

Facebook is still lacking in one major area, and until this is fixed I and a lot of other people will remain uncomfortable. We need to be able to layer our social circle like an onion. We know lots of people, close family, distant family, close and casual friends, friends from the ‘old days’, close business partners, associates, people who you want to get to know better, the variety may be endless. At a minimum there is family, friends and business. For years I’ve made an effort to at least keep business and the rest separate, keeping business to LinkedIn. It looks like the Facebook future is being forced upon us anyway and things are about to get messy.

Having a social graph is useless without some degree of control over who gets what. I’m sorry, but everyone can’t be my ‘friend’.

I don’t think I’m being fuddy-duddy, this is actually a younger generation attitude. After all our teens don’t tweet specifically because they want to control who sees what and they don’t have granular control on Twitter.

The current Facebook privacy choices; Friends, Friends of Friends, and Everyone, is useless. It is a cop-out.

The things announced this week are interesting, but also a scary power grab (by an arguably shady company that is more Borg like than anything Gates ever imagined) that will have far reaching implications for your privacy. A social graph with degrees of exposure is a hard problem but a real one that must be solved. How about some real innovation, ZuckerBorg?

There is a bug/oversight currently affecting calendar sync with the iPad.  If you have already been a user of Google sync in the [...]]]> Update: Google has fixed the problem with their site not handling iPad correctly.  You can now configure up to 25 calendars from your Apps or Gmail account to sync to your iPad calendar.

There is a bug/oversight currently affecting calendar sync with the iPad.  If you have already been a user of Google sync in the past on your iPhone or iPod Touch you know how great it is to have access to not just your calendar but all the other calendars you have configured as well.  For myself I’m able to see/edit not just mine but also my Wife’s, the ‘Family’ calendar, and others such as a ‘Notes’ calendar I maintain for things that aren’t necessarily actions or appointments.

The problem is right now when you configure your iPad for sync you’ll only get the default calendar. At first I thought this was an iPad issue but quickly realized it was a problem with the sync configuration.  Now the fun starts.

There isn’t any way that I can find to configure the sync settings from a desktop browser.  Or the iPad browser for that matter since Google currently treats iPad as desktop in the case of the sync area, though it maddeningly it treats it as a moble browser in some other properties.  This will no doubt take awhile to settle down, so in the meantime if you have an iPhone or iPod Touch you can configure the settings from there, with one caveat. (Info on other means in the note at the end).

For some reason Google sync assumes your iPad can only handle one calendar, as you can see in the screenshot.  The good news is enforcement of this limit is only done through client-side javascript, so if you turn off javascript you can select as many calendars as you like.

1. On your iPhone or iPod Touch go to m.google.com.  (If you get a Google search dialog instead of a screen full of icons pick “More” from the menu, then “Even More”)

1a. If you are a Google Apps user(custom domain, not @gmail.com) and you don’t get a green box at the top of this screen full of icons, scroll down to a box at the bottom of the screen that says “Google Apps User?” and select it to log into your custom domain.

2. Pick the “Sync” icon.  You should get a list of devices currently hooked to this account, it should include at least your iPad.  Before you pick the iPad you must do the next step>

3. Hit the Home button and navigate to Settings.  In Settings find “Safari” and on this configuration screen turn OFF Javascript.

4. Return to your browser and pick iPad.  Select all the calendars you want to sync up. Save.

5. Don’t forget to turn Javascript back on in Settings.

You’re done.  If you want to get the iPad to sync up right away go into configuration and fiddle with the number of months back it is getting, or create a new calendar item.  You will now have all your calendars, and you’ll notice a new “Calendars” button in the top left of the Calendar app.

Note: If you don’t have an iPod Touch or iPhone you can achieve all of this by using Firefox and changing the User Agent.  Still need to disable Javascript.  If you are a Chrome user (like you should be!) just grab Firefox temporarily for this action.

As I observed in my post months back on health care reform, the vast majority of new jobs created in the US are at small and new companies. The easiest way to understand why this is the case is to look at [...]]]> New startups and ‘seed stage‘ funding are the absolute underpinning of our entire economy.

As I observed in my post months back on health care reform, the vast majority of new jobs created in the US are at small and new companies. The easiest way to understand why this is the case is to look at the psychology of established companies vs. startups. Established companies already have their nut, they have successful products or services and are mostly engaged in protecting what they already have. Startups take risks, they disrupt, in doing so they shift or create markets. This phenomenon is only amplified during tough economic times like we are facing today.

The best way to stimulate an economy is to create new jobs. That makes new dollars enter the system, they spend money at existing businesses, they pay new taxes which can be spent to improve infrastructure. The cycle grows upward. It is not just the best way, it is really the only way out of a downward spiral.

What can we do to stimulate new startups?

Make people aware it is possible. Talk about startups, show them the ropes, explain the support systems that are already in place to help them find their way. Make kids aware that being a person that takes their ideas and does something about them is a viable way to live. Even though I’m super busy getting my own company going, I’m talking to students, getting myself heard and running Ignite Cincinnati, what are you doing? You know it: If not you, who? If now now, when? You aren’t too busy, do it.

Support your local startups. Pay attention to startups in your area. Give them moral support at the least, if you are a potential client or you know people who are, get them together. And do the other things on this list:

Support your local Angel investors. These guys shoulder risk, a lot of it. They come into the startup game at the earliest and most risky point. Without them many entrepreneurs would not have the resources to get off the ground. Angel investing is currently under threat from a misguided piece of legislation crawling its way through congress right now. See why it is bad. Sign the petition against it.

Support the Startup Visa. After 9/11 we got a bit xenophobic in this country and we cut off many types of immigration. This resulted in a huge dropoff of foreign students and business founders. We used to scrape the cream off much of the world and bring it here, which was awesome for our economy. We aren’t any more. We can fix this. Read more about the Startup Visa and take action.

If you live in Ohio you need to vote on Issue #1 in the next election.  You can do so right away, get yourself an absentee ballot and send it in. If you didn’t get an absentee application yesterday you’ll probably get it today or tomorrow, fill it out and send it in.  Issue #1 is to re-authorize the Third Frontier funding.  The last fund has been an unambiguous win for the state. Support Issue 1, tell your friends and colleagues and especially your parents. We need more support in rural areas and older populations in the state.

Thank your congress people for passing health care reform. Even if they didn’t vote for it. Even if you don’t 100% agree with it. It is a step in the right direction for making it easier to start new companies in this country.

Be more aware of Seed Stage funding. It works.

Please take a moment and read this message from the Grameen foundation, a cause I strongly support:

Last year, we kicked off a global campaign in hopes that our supporters who believe in the power of microfinance will help us share its importance with their networks.

On the 27th of each month, we ask our supporters to [...]]]>  

Please take a moment and read this message from the Grameen foundation, a cause I strongly support:

Last year, we kicked off a global campaign in hopes that our supporters who believe in the power of microfinance will help us share its importance with their networks.

On the 27th of each month, we ask our supporters to make a donation of $27 to let the world know that poverty is unnecessary and one person can help change the lives of the world’s poorest.

Today we can double our impact! A group of friends of Grameen Foundation has pledged to provide a dollar-for-dollar match until we reach $200,000.

Why $27? In 1976, Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus planted the seed that created Grameen Bank by making a loan of $27 to a group of Bangladeshi women out of his own pocket. This small action was a catalyst for the global microfinance movement that has since provided millions of women around the world with the microloans they need to help start or improve a small business, provide for their families and escape the cycle of poverty.

Three things you can do:

1. Give a gift of $27 to this movement. Visit: http://tinyurl.com/give27 .
2. Change your LinkedIn status today to: Today is the 27th! Let’s celebrate the first $27 microloan. Support Grameen Foundation http://tinyurl.com/give27
3. Change your Facebook status today to: It’s the 27th of the month, and I’m giving $27 to help the Grameen Foundation end global poverty. $27 was all it took for Muhammad Yunus to give his first microloan. Join in: http://tinyurl.com/give27 and DOUBLE your impact because generous donors are providing a dollar-for-dollar match until we reach $200,000! Your $27 becomes $54!

Micro-lending is a very important way to help improve economies around the world.  You can have a large impact for a small number of dollars, please take this opportunity to lend a leg up to an entrepreneur in the 3rd world.

Now the iPad will have a similar growth curve.  The software that is initially shipping with it suffers from being 1.0.  And Apple 1.0 versions suffer further from [...]]]> When the iPhone came out it was amazingly great and obviously stupid at the same time.  No cut and paste? No changeable battery?  No slot for expansion cards?

Now the iPad will have a similar growth curve.  The software that is initially shipping with it suffers from being 1.0.  And Apple 1.0 versions suffer further from not receiving wide beta testing.  Congratulations early-adopters, you get to beta test the iPad extensions to the SDK.  This device will lay the groundwork for a great future in tablet shaped devices, and this initial device will be fondly remembered but not with the martyrdom of the Newton because this one will be supplanted by improved devices instead of being abandoned.

The netbook just died, it hasn’t stopped moving yet but netbook sales are about to fall off a cliff.  I’m sure this drove the $499 price point.

This will be the device that makes eBooks real.  Kindle was a side show, there will be more iPads in peoples hands than Kindles only a couple weeks after launch, and in a year there will be some serious numbers.  The people with these devices in hands also just happen to be the people who spend real money on media.

There are hints of impending perfection:

• The single most important thing about this device is the new form factor.  The apps will come and like the iPhone this will be a gadget that paradoxically improves with age.
• Book reading will be good.  Not perfect but very good.  I’ve already switched to reading books on my iPhone months ago, this will be better, I think.
• My kids won’t be hauling around huge textbooks in college, it is pretty clear that some device with this form factor will be filled with PDFs or something and take the place of print very quickly.
• Book and magazine publishing has to be impacted by this.  Not tomorrow but soon.  Glossy magazines that found no love with Kindle will find it here.  That goes doubly for Playboy and their kin.  Cookbooks and cooking magazines, sports, etc.  And comic books. Any pub that pay photogs or artists as much or more as they pay writers.

Unfortunately there are some flaws we will be stuck with for awhile, possibly until other manufacturers catch up;

• Relatively low resolution screen.  1024×768?  Really?  Is it 1996 again?  This will need to double linearly asap.
• It shouldn’t be necessary to own a computer in order to make full use of either the iPhone or the iPad.  This is an artificial limitation and driven by Apple and the cell carriers marketing strategies.
• Ditto for lack of a memory card slot.  Apple wants to up-charge storage.
• Cameras.  Come on.  This device format will be the video phone we’ve been promised for 40 years.
• The bezel is way too big and spoils the esthetic, which tells me it was an unavoidable technical problem; guts too big to hide fully behind the screen, larger screens too expensive, battery life with larger display area too lousy.  The thin-bezel OLED version of this thing in 2 years will be pure sexy.
• No GPS.  Stupid.  Had to be cost driven for this generation.
• For the love of Pete can we have a little multi-tasking?  That Pandora has to stop so I can check a map is stupid on the 3Gs, it will be mind-numbing on the iPad. 

For all that, will I be buying one?  In a heartbeat, if I can jailbreak it.  Otherwise I’ll be waiting for an Android pad.  Trust me in 2-3 years you’ll have a device very much like this sitting on your desk, another in your living room, and another that lives on your nightstand.